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Abstract Auroral substorms that move from auroral (<70°) to polar (>70°) magnetic latitudes (MLAT) are known to occur preferentially when a high‐speed solar wind stream passes by Earth. We report here on observations that occurred during a ∼75‐min interval with high‐speed solar wind on 28 November 2022 during which auroral arcs and very large geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs), also known as magnetic perturbation events (MPEs), with amplitude >9 nT/s = 540 nT/min moved progressively poleward at eight stations spanning a large region near and north of Hudson Bay, Canada shortly before midnight local time. Sustained GMD activity with amplitudes >3 nT/s appeared at each station for durations from 13 to 25 min. Spherical Elementary Currents Systems maps showed the poleward movement of a large‐scale westward electrojet as well as mesoscale electrojet structures and highly localized up/down pairs of vertical currents near these stations when the largest GMDs were observed. This study is consistent with other recent studies showing that very large poleward‐progressing GMDs can occur under high Vsw conditions, but is the first to document the sustained occurrence of large GMDs over such a wide high‐latitude region. 

Abstract Ultraviolet images of Earth's polar regions obtained by high altitude spacecraft have proved to be immensely useful for documenting numerous features of the aurora and understanding the coupling between Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere. In this study we have examined images obtained by the far ultraviolet Spectrographic Imager camera on the IMAGE satellite during the first three years of its mission (2000–2002) for comparison with observations of large geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) by ground‐based magnetometers in eastern Arctic Canada. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the use of high‐altitude imager data to identify the global context of GMDs. We found that rapid auroral motions or localized intensifications visible in these images coincide with regions of largedB/dtas well as localized and closely spaced up/down vertical currents and increased equivalent ionospheric currents, but one of the two events presented did not appear to be related to substorm processes. These magnetic perturbations and currents can appear or disappear in a few tens of seconds, thus highlighting the importance of images with a high cadence. 

Abstract Utilizing magnetic field measurements made by the Iridium satellites and by ground magnetometers in North America we calculate the full ionospheric current system and investigate the substorm current wedge. The current estimates are independent of ionospheric conductance, and are based on estimates of the divergence‐free (DF) ionospheric current from ground magnetometers and curl‐free (CF) ionospheric currents from Iridium. The DF and CF currents are represented using spherical elementary current systems (SECS), derived using a new inversion scheme that ensures the current systems' spatial scales are consistent. We present 18 substorm events and find a typical substorm current wedge (SCW) in 12 events. Our investigation of these substorms shows that during substorm expansion, equivalent field‐aligned currents (EFACs) derived with ground magnetometers are a poor proxy of the actual FAC. We also find that the intensification of the westward electrojet can occur without an intensification of the FACs. We present theoretical investigations that show that the observed deviation between FACs estimated with satellite measurements and ground‐based EFACs are consistent with the presence of a strong local enhancement of the ionospheric conductance, similar to the substorm bulge. Such enhancements of the auroral conductance can also change the ionospheric closure of pre‐existing FACs such that the ground magnetic field, and in particular the westward electrojet, changes significantly. These results demonstrate that attributing intensification of the westward electrojet to SCW current closure can yield false understanding of the ionospheric and magnetospheric state. 

Understanding of Earth’s geomagnetic environment is critical to mitigating the space weather impacts caused by disruptive geoelectric fields in power lines and other conductors on Earth’s surface. These impacts are the result of a chain of processes driven by the solar wind and linking Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere and Earth’s surface. Tremendous progress has been made over the last two decades in understanding the solar wind driving mechanisms, the coupling mechanisms connecting the magnetically controlled regions of near-Earth space, and the impacts of these collective processes on human technologies on Earth’s surface. Studies of solar wind drivers have been focused on understanding the responses of the geomagnetic environment to spatial and temporal variations in the solar wind associated with Coronal Mass Ejections, Corotating Interaction Regions, Interplanetary Shocks, High-Speed Streams, and other interplanetary magnetic field structures. Increasingly sophisticated numerical models are able to simulate the magnetospheric response to the solar wind forcing associated with these structures. Magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupling remains a great challenge, although new observations and sophisticated models that can assimilate disparate data sets have improved the ability to specify the electrodynamic properties of the high latitude ionosphere. The temporal and spatial resolution needed to predict the electric fields, conductivities, and currents in the ionosphere is driving the need for further advances. These parameters are intricately tied to auroral phenomena—energy deposition due to Joule heating and precipitating particles, motions of the auroral boundary, and ion outflow. A new view of these auroral processes is emerging that focuses on small-scale structures in the magnetosphere and their ionospheric effects, which may include the rapid variations in current associated with geomagnetically induced currents and the resulting perturbations to geoelectric fields on Earth’s surface. Improvements in model development have paralleled the advancements in understanding, yielding coupled models that better replicate the spatial and temporal scales needed to simulate the interconnected domains. Many realizations of such multi-component systems are under development, each with its own limitations and advantages. Challenges remain in the ability of models to quantify uncertainties introduced by propagation of solar wind parameters, to account for numerical effects in model codes, and to handle the special conditions occurring during extreme events. The impacts to technical systems on the ground are highly sensitive to the local electric properties of Earth’s surface, as well as to the specific technology at risk. Current research is focused on understanding the characteristics of geomagnetic disturbances that are important for geomagnetically induced currents, the development of earth conductivity models, the calculation of geoelectric fields, and the modeling of induced currents in the different affected systems. Assessing and mitigating the risks to technical systems requires quantitative knowledge of the range of values to be expected under all possible geomagnetic and technical conditions. Considering the progress that has been made in studying the chain of events leading to hazardous geomagnetic disturbances, the path forward will require concerted efforts to reveal missing physics, improve modeling capabilities, and deploy new observational assets. New understanding should be targeted to accurately quantify solar wind driving, magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupling, and the impacts on specific technologies. The research, modeling, and observations highlighted here provide a framework for constructing a plan by which the international science community can comprehensively address the growing threat to human technologies caused by geomagnetic disturbances. 

Abstract Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth‐bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. Such effects can pose considerable threats to human assets in space and on the ground, including satellites in the upper atmosphere and power infrastructure. Thus, it is of great interest to the space weather community to (a) keep an accurate catalog of shocks observed near Earth, and (b) be able to forecast shock occurrence as a function of the solar cycle (SC). In this work, we use a supervised machine learning regression model to predict the number of shocks expected in SC25 using three previously published sunspot predictions for the same cycle. We predict shock counts to be around 275 ± 10, which is ∼47% higher than the shock occurrence in SC24 (187 ± 8), but still smaller than the shock occurrence in SC23 (343 ± 12). With the perspective of having more IP shocks on the horizon for SC25, we briefly discuss many opportunities in space weather research for the remainder years of SC25. The next decade or so will bring unprecedented opportunities for research and forecasting effects in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and on the ground. As a result, we predict SC25 will offer excellent opportunities for shock occurrences and data availability for conducting space weather research and forecasting. 

Abstract We model lower band chorus observations from the DEMETER satellite using daily and hourly autoregressive‐moving average transfer function (ARMAX) equations. ARMAX models can account for serial autocorrelation between observations that are measured close together in time and can be used to predict a response variable based on its past behavior without the need for recent data. Unstable distributions of radiation belt source electrons (tens of keV) and the substorm activity (SMEd from the SuperMAG array) that is thought to inject these electrons were both statistically significant explanatory variables in a daily ARMAX model describing chorus. Predictions from this model correlated well with observations in a hold‐out test data set (validation correlation of 0.675). Source electron flux was most influential when observations came from the same day or the day before the chorus measurement, with effects decaying rapidly over time. Substorms were more influential when they occurred on previous days, presumably due to their injecting source electrons from the plasma sheet. A daily ARMAX model with interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)|B|, IMFB_z, and solar wind pressure as inputs instead of those given above was somewhat less predictive of chorus (r=0.611). An hourly ARMAX model with only solar wind and IMF inputs was even less successful, with a validation correlation of 0.502. 

Abstract Large changes of the magnetic field associated with magnetic perturbation events (MPEs) with amplitudes |ΔB| of hundreds of nT and 5–10 min duration have been frequently observed within a few hours of midnight. This study compares the statistical location of nighttime MPEs with |dB/dt| ≥ 6 nT/s within the auroral current system observed during 2015 and 2017 at two stations, Cape Dorset and Kuujjuarapik, in Eastern Canada. Maps of the two dimensional nightside auroral current system were derived using the Spherical Elementary Current Systems (SECS) technique. Analyses were produced at each station for all events, and for premidnight and postmidnight subsets. We examine four MPE intervals in detail, two accompanied by auroral images, and show the varying associations between MPEs and overhead ionospheric current systems including electrojets and the field‐aligned like currents. We find 225 of 279 MPEs occurred within the westward electrojet and only 3 within the eastward electrojet. For the premidnight MPEs 100 of 230 events occurred within the Harang current system while many of the remainder occurred within either the downward region 1 current system or the upward region 2 current system. Many of the 49 postmidnight MPEs occurred in either the downward region 1 (11 events) or upward region 2 current system (27 events). These result suggest that the source of MPEs in the premidnight sector is somewhere between the inner to mid plasma sheet and the source for the MPEs in the postmidnight sector is somewhere between the inner magnetosphere and the inner plasma sheet. 

Abstract Rapid changes of magnetic fields associated with nighttime magnetic perturbation events (MPEs) with amplitudes |ΔB| of hundreds of nT and 5–10 min duration can induce geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) that can harm technological systems. Here we present superposed epoch analyses of large nighttime MPEs (|dB/dt| ≥ 6 nT/s) observed during 2015 and 2017 at five stations in Arctic Canada ranging from 64.7° to 75.2° in corrected geomagnetic latitude (MLAT) as functions of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), solar wind dynamic pressure, density, and velocity, and the SML, SMU, and SYM/H geomagnetic activity indices. Analyses were produced for premidnight and postmidnight events and for three ranges of time after the most recent substorm onset: (a) 0–30 min, (b) 30–60 min, and (c) >60 min. Of the solar wind and IMF parameters studied, only the IMF Bz component showed any consistent temporal variations prior to MPEs: a 1–2 h wide 1–3 nT negative minimum at all stations beginning ∼30–80 min before premidnight MPEs, and minima that were less consistent but often deeper before postmidnight MPEs. Median, 25th, and 75th percentile SuperMAG auroral indices SML (SMU) showed drops (rises) before pre‐ and post‐midnight type A MPEs, but most of the MPEs in categories B and C did not coincide with large‐scale peaks in ionospheric electrojets. Median SYM/H indices were flat near −30 nT for premidnight events and showed no consistent temporal association with any MPE events. More disturbed values of IMF Bz, Psw, Nsw, SML, SMU, and SYM/H appeared postmidnight than premidnight.